What’s Next for the Gold Price? 

If you're a regular reader of these weekly columns, you'd have seen this most recent gold price rally coming. As such, if you take time to read this column today, you might get an idea of where gold is headed next.

Let's start this week with a reminder of where we've been. Here's a link to a post from September 2. The gold price had finished August by finally breaking out of its four-month consolidation and was poised for a September rally. And as we noted in a post in early August, the gold price was entering a period of strong seasonality too.

All of which allowed this conclusion to be drawn:

And now here we are in early October, and price is indeed surging toward $4000 (as I type,  about $3960).

Gold Price - Daily Candlestick Chart

In my mind, it's important now to not get carried away and, instead, anticipate what's likely to happen next. On the updated weekly chart below, notice that gold is not "going parabolic". Instead, the past 18 months have brought a steady pattern of 15-20% rallies, followed by three-to-four-month periods of consolidation. Recognizing this in late August allowed the forecast of $4000+ by October. Recognizing this now might save you some angst and frustration into year end.

Gold Price - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart

As such, I expect the gold price to soon reach and breach $4,000 and then continue toward $4,100. At that point, however, it will have completed its latest 15-20% breakout and is likely to stall, perhaps into and through year end with another three-to-four-month consolidation. What then shakes up price in early 2026 and sparks the rally to $5,000? The realization that Yield Curve Control is coming, as we wrote in this post from September 9.

Impact of Gold Prices on Mining Shares and GDX Performance

How might this impact the mining shares? As you know, they're having a great year as margins and earnings expand with higher metal prices. On the chart below, you can see COMEX gold futures in candles with the GDX ETF as a blue line. Note that while gold is 43% year-to-date, the ETF is up nearly three times as much at +127%.

Now look closely at the period of late April to September. Note that while the gold price moved sideways and consolidated, the GDX moved gradually higher. As such, if I'm correct about gold soon entering another consolidation period, we should expect a slowdown in the mining sector rally too. A slowdown, but not a reversal as investors are likely to continue buying dips, just as they did last summer.