U.S. Fiscal Crisis: Gold&Silver Back in Focus

U.S. Fiscal Situation Continues to Deteriorate

In just the past week, the debt and deficits of the United States took further blows as spending increases, falling revenues, and geopolitical hostilities tightened the funding vice.

Distractions vs. Long-Term Trends

Even if you're primarily a precious metal investor, you've likely been distracted by war headlines for the past few weeks. Over that same time, however, other long-term headlines have surfaced that will greatly impact gold and silver over time. You may have missed them, so, for this week's post, let's recap.

Monthly Treasury Report – March Deficit

Let's start with the latest monthly statement from the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. government has now reached the midpoint of its fiscal year, so comparisons to last year are easy to make. First, here's the report for just the month of March. The monthly deficit was $164B or about $5.3B per day.

Fiscal Year-to-Date Deficit

And at the midpoint of FY26, the total deficit thus far is about $1.17 Trillion:

Putting the Scale Into Perspective

First, I'll remind you that $1.17T is a BIG number. For scale, 1.17T seconds adds up to 37,076 years! Keep that in mind when you contemplate the U.S. spending 1.17T more dollars than it took in over the course of just the past six months.

Comparing FY26 to FY25

Next, you might add up the total deficit spending over the first six months of FY25. If you do so, you'll notice that FY26 is actually an "improvement" as the total first half deficit last year was about $1.31T. Woohoo! That means that the FY26 deficit is actually $140B lighter than FY25. 

The Role of Tariff Revenue

Unfortunately, that difference can be almost entirely attributed to "customs duties" (tariffs) of $166B. Without that revenue source, FY26 is trending just as poorly as FY25, which ended with a total deficit of $1.775T. Ooof.

Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

Which leads us to headline number two...: Because the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the imposition of Trump's tariffs were unconstitutional, the U.S. is set to begin refunding some of the collected revenue this week. Ooof ooof.

Warning from Hank Paulson

Which leads us to headline number three. Do you remember Hank Paulson? If that name sounds familiar it's because he was U.S. Secretary of the Treasury during The Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Anyway, ole Hank has been out of action for years. Since he retired in 2009, we've barely heard a peep from the guy as he has focused upon education and philanthropic efforts. Until last week, when suddenly he appeared on Bloomberg to warn that a major crisis in treasuries (government deficit funding) is coming.

Treasury Market Stress Signals

And this at a time when the latest Treasury International Capital or TIC data shows the largest net sales of Treasuries since December of 2024.

The Bigger Picture for Investors

In the end, these headlines and this post shall serve as your reminder that, as a precious metal investor, you should not focus solely upon daily events while losing sight of the long term. The fiscal situation in the U.S. and globally is reaching a breaking point where governments will soon be forced to monetize their own debt through direct purchases and Yield Curve Control. This was a central theme of our 2026 macrocast, and it remains our primary focus going forward.

The Case for Precious Metals

Your fiat currency — whether it's U.S. dollars, Canadian dollars, euro, yen, whatever — will continue to be devalued, and the pace of this devaluation will, like government debt, increase exponentially over time. Your primary protection against this madness is the accumulation of physical precious metal, which has endured as sound money for millennia. Gold and silver have served as asset protection through financial crises of the past, and they will serve the same role in the crisis that is coming. Get some/more today.