Parabolic Moves in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

Craig Hemke (00:00)
Happy October from Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com. We are now 75 % of the way through the year 2025 at the quarter poll, as they say, heading into the home stretch of the year. Very busy month ahead. And as usual, it starts out with your precious metals projections. I'm your host, Craig Hempke, joining us as usual, my old friend, Chris Vermeulen of the TechnicalTraders.com. Chris, it's gonna be fun to visit again.

Chris Vermeulen (00:27)
Yeah, sounds good. Always a pleasure. 

Craig Hemke (00:29)
Let's always keep in mind it is Sprott Money that brings all this content to you. Not just this, but there'll be new content through the entire month of October. With a lot of volatility ahead, you're going to want to stay on top of it. So be checking Sprott Money all the time. You want to subscribe, like wherever you're watching this video or listening to it right now. And of course, there it is. SprottMoney.com should be a dealer of choice, not just in Canada, but in the U.S. as well. Anytime you are buying physical and they've got some right now. They've got those Britannias. They've got some Eagles. the next thing is going to come across is some new silver that they just got in. That's only a couple of dollars over spot. so be sure to visit, it's brought money.com or call them at 888-861-0775 and thank them for all this content that comes your way. All right. And you should be watching this content. If you had watched last month's precious metals projection video you would have been prepared for what came in September. Chris and I discussed the breakout above $3,500, how that maybe targeted something more like $4,100 in the weeks ahead in gold and higher prices in silver to September. Gold up 11%, silver up 16%. Can they keep going? As we get into October, Chris is going to help us out with that. But first and foremost. Almost everybody probably has some exposure to stocks, US stocks. It's kind of a bellwether for all of the global equity markets. So always try to start there. What are you seeing at present in US stocks?

Chris Vermeulen (02:07)
Yeah, I mean, obviously we're still in a very, very strong rally after the tariff sell off. And if we just look at it from a pure technical standpoint, if we look at color coded chart of just simple red and green, when the technical analysis and money flows are negative, they turn red, we don't want to hold equities. When they are green, we want to belong. And of course, we're long the equities here and you do not want to fight this trend. Even though the market internals based on my sentiment indicators, on the right hand side, we are seeing this market push higher, but the underlying technicals aren't the strongest, they aren't really that strong. So I am worried that we could have a big sell off at any point here, but that being said, the markets can stay irrational for a long time and keep moving. And that's why we have to stick with the underlying trend. Now, when we look at the short term chart, say the 30 minute chart of the S &P 500, we've gone from these, are so-called short term overbought FOMO, market conditions where the market usually puts a top in. And then we go down into these lime green, which is a oversold condition within a bull market phase. Now here we are rallying back up today in the equities market as we're speaking, and we're back into FOMO territory. Now the market, as you know, Craig, it's never really a straight line unless it's parabolic and going straight up, but the markets are kind of neandering their way higher with a series of higher highs and higher lows. And so right now the market,

Here we are on Friday. I think people who were hitting all time highs yet again on the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ, we have the VIX down low. This is the perfect scenario for maximum FOMO. And I talked about this about a week and a half ago when we were back over here at a previous FOMO stage. Right now, people who aren't long the equities markets are feeling left behind. And this indicator that we have, this red indicators telling us they're buying today. They can't take it anymore. They just need to get in.

This is usually actually a short-term indicator, meaning the market is likely to have a bit of a pullback. And if we look at the daily chart, that simply means that next week, if we have a strong close today, we'll probably see the equities market gap higher on Monday, because people who have FOMO over the weekend are gonna put in their buy orders. And then we'll probably see a couple days of a pause or pullback while the stock market kind of probably recoups itself over the next couple of days. So.

Strong uptrend, short term wise, all the signs are here that we're probably gonna see prices higher today and Monday, but then we're probably gonna see a bit of a pause or pullback, which is a good thing in the markets. We don't really want things to go straight up, because it can ⁓ make things also wanna come straight back down, because it becomes a of a crowded trade.

Craig Hemke (04:47)
You know, myself, probably you, a lot of folks watching also own some Bitcoin as a dollar alternative. I mean, your chart of the S &P makes me think of Bitcoin, which often tracks the S &P or tracks the NASDAQ. And I know it's moving back toward all-time highs. So, hey, let's take a look at Bitcoin real quick.

Chris Vermeulen (05:06)
Yeah. Yeah. Bitcoin's had a nice run. It really was out of favor and out of sync with everything there for the last like month or so, but it has really kind of picked up speed. starting to run higher. I think this is a, you know, we're seeing, think aggressive money really pile into the market here. We're seeing small caps and micro cap stocks really pop and push higher. And that's telling us that, Hey, money wants to get into stuff, fast moving things. It wants to make more money, which is perfectly normal. And usually what happens in this type of scenario,

So Bitcoin does have this potential here where it's going to have another big breakout. We can even throw a Fibonacci extension on here. Based on this last run, we can get an idea of that next upside push based on this pause and pullback is actually showing us about 139,000 up to about 160,000. Now that is based on this current push. If we go back to the most conservative targets for Bitcoin, which I think are the ones that really we should focus on.

Craig Hemke (05:41)
Yeah.

Chris Vermeulen (06:06)
it's gonna be this pullback over here and this rally up and this pullback. And this is the one you and I have talked about many times that I've shared. This is the $135,000 Bitcoin target. So this is like the first level that if you're in Bitcoin for a trade only, this will be a level where you might wanna move your stops up. You might wanna take partial profits going forward. But the Bitcoin, when we look at it on the monthly chart, Craig, it does have these big series of bull flag patterns, meaning, it is pointing to higher pricing. we had one, whoops, we had one huge run up here and then it put in this beautiful bull flag, which is known as a halfway point. Based on that, we saw a breakout and a run up to this side and my subscribers and I traded this play. Now it's consolidating and now we just measured it and this next move is the pullback and the push up to 135,000. You could also argue, this tight bull flag right here is pointing to that higher target, the first one I showed you, which is about 160,000 for Bitcoin. So there is quite a bit of upside potential here. The monthly chart is starting to break out and it's looking pretty strong. It's wanting to run higher, like kind of what the equities and the gold market is doing. So it's pretty exciting. I most people's portfolios, you pretty much should be at all time highs. if you're in Bitcoin, stocks, precious metals,

I mean, everybody's feeling pretty good right now. And I think the key is making sure you protect that capital because when things are really good, usually what comes after really good are difficult times. enjoy the ride, but have a strategy to manage risk in case something does happen and things do want to reverse kind of across the board.

Craig Hemke (07:43)
Mm-hmm. You got me thinking the way that Bitcoin and stocks have been correlated. I mean, they're both pointing higher. You wonder what type of monetary environment that ⁓ we are currently in that might be persisting and that might continue to drive gold and silver too. We'll get to those in a moment. I also want to ask you though, I've got personally a little exposure to uranium. Rick Rule told me about it three or four years ago and said, just give this some time. So I own some uranium miners. I own some uranium ETFs, Sprott Inc.

Chris Vermeulen (08:09)
Mm-hmm.

Craig Hemke (08:23)
Manages a very popular uranium ETF. I've been watching that stuff percolate here as of late. What do think of that as a sector?

Chris Vermeulen (08:31)
Yeah, I don't have the chart on me here, but I did some analysis on it two nights ago and it was really interesting because I mean, I'm bullish on the space. It is definitely in a strong bull market phase here. It's got a bull flag pattern ready to pop and push based on a couple different targets. could see where this URA, I know there's several different ETFs on this, but you can see here based on Fibonacci, which is this rally up and this pullback.

Usually what happens is if we come up and we hit and pause at the 618, which is the golden ratio, that means we're usually gonna go up and hit that 100 % measured move, which is $58 per share. So we could see URA run another 15 % fairly quickly. This could be like a week, a two week move. When it pops, it's gonna run probably very quickly. So there's quite a bit of upside potential from that standpoint. Now, if we were to kind of give it the more aggressive based on this low, and the rally high about a week and a half ago, and this high momentum pullback, it gives us another target, which is around $62 per share, which is around 24 or so, 23 % upside. So there's no doubt we're in this big phase. You can see the volume on the chart near September, October, big money's moving into this space. ⁓ It is really starting to go somewhat, ⁓ it's taking off. And it's interesting, cause Sprott, not Sprott, sorry. uranium pricing spot, uranium pricing has pulled back quite dramatically while the uranium stocks have taken off. And it's interesting because when we saw the big multi-year bear market in uranium a long time ago, this is over several years, we eventually saw a big divergence, which next time you're on here, when we do this, I'll show it. But long story short, if we look at the long-term chart, uranium stocks put in a bottom, back here in 2020. Well, uranium, spot uranium actually put a bottom in in 2016. And so, you people took a real beating in uranium stocks. And even though uranium bottomed and went up about 300 % from there to here, where uranium stocks put in a bottom, people didn't want to touch it. They got burned on every bounce and rally, and then they gave up on it, even though it had bottomed years earlier. And so what's interesting now, and a lot of people probably don't really want to hear this,

Craig Hemke (10:34)
Yeah.

Chris Vermeulen (11:00)
We have this opposite divergence going on right now, which is we've had uranium pricing kind of spike up and now it's pulled back. And even though uranium spot pricing is pulling back, we're seeing uranium take off, meaning people are very aggressive and they think it's just the start of a big rally. I would say uranium's had a huge rally already. I think right now we're just seeing a little bit more of that, kind of a little bit of that greed play of even though spot uranium has crashed and pulled back fairly substantially, people are ignoring it. They're like, no, no, I want in this space. I don't want to be left behind. So we're seeing uranium stocks push higher. And so to me, it's just a sign that I think we're going to see another push higher in uranium stocks. It's a momentum trade now. It's kind of a crowded play. And then after this next push, I think we might see it consolidate or pause for several months while it digest this move and starts to re recalibrate. So it's kind of like everything else. The stock market is in a strong uptrend. think it's going to push higher. Precious metal space, uranium, Bitcoin. We're in that kind of feeding frenzy. Enjoy the ride. And I think things are still going to keep going higher. But we just need to know that, you know, I think eventually we're going to have a substantial pause and pullback and you just have to be mentally prepared so you don't panic out of positions.

Craig Hemke (12:21)
Always good advice. you know, just my own personal experience with uranium and anybody else's traded or own those stocks. They move very fast to the upside and then they pull back and consolidate very quickly as well. You can really get caught wrong footed. To me, I think it's a very good commercial for your services, Chris. that anybody that's trying to trade that sector, have Chris stay on top of it for you. All right, brother.

Chris Vermeulen (12:31)
Yeah, we played this recently, this recent run up. had a nice play in that, in the URA.

Craig Hemke (12:47)
Yeah, again, that's something you really got to stay on top of if you're going to fiddle around with that sector. All right, brother, let's shift to gold and silver, and if we have time, the mining shares. Because I remember, back in early September, it really began in late August. We started to break out. Everything signaled higher prices, the seasonality. People watch these videos. We've been talking about the seasonality in both July and ⁓ in both the August and September versions of this program. September, October, very strong seasonal periods. It eases. It picks up again December into January. ⁓ So I would suggest there's still got a little ways to go in the gold price before the next consolidation phase. What are you seeing on your charts?

Chris Vermeulen (13:33)
Yeah, well, I mean, if we take a look at gold, I mean, it's it's had a beautiful run where we're we've taken an extra gold trade beyond just holding physical medals. We've we've played this Fibonacci move or we're playing this Fibonacci move here, which comes down to this multi-month consolidation. And ⁓ this is one of the trades that we've got going on. So we had this this rally up, we this pullback, and this is a giant pennant, kind of a bull flag formation.

And more or less when it comes up and hits this 618 and has a pause, that is usually when ⁓ we're gonna see it wanna run up to the next target, which is that about 4,100 that you and I talked about last month and the month before. mean, this chart pattern has lasted all year. So these are long-term targets that we're finally working up to, which is pretty exciting. we're really just letting gold continue to work itself up. It's got a tight little sideways pause here over the last three days.

Craig Hemke (14:12)
Yep. Yep. Yep.

Chris Vermeulen (14:28)
I mean, it's primed and ready to pop to 4,100 pretty much any week now. And once it hits that level, it'll be interesting to see how it reacts. Does it pause and pull back really quickly and build another little launch pad to go higher or are we gonna blast through that? And I think we're in this unique situation where not only do I think the target is gonna be hit and that you and I touched on this in our last session, which I think we could see gold and silver kind of go parabolic where it could blast through this and actually keep picking up more speed and go parabolic in a pretty big way. And silver is very similar from that. And when we look at the monthly chart of gold and silver, can see, you know, I'll just zoom back so we can see these previous. We're starting to go pretty parabolic where, we were really popping and another another big month. The green bar here is telling us that, hey, yes, it's it's you know, money's been piling in. But it might be starting to move a little too far too fast. And so typically after that, we usually see some type of pause and some consolidation. And the question is, does it build a nice bull flag formation or pennant formation before it shoots up and goes even higher? We just really have to take it one bar at a time. But right now I think we're gonna see gold and silver ⁓ push higher blast past that. And the question is, where is the top in this kind of feeding frenzy? We've got central banks piling in, we've got individual investors piling in.

Nobody wants to get rid of it because it's a winning trade and natural tendency is to not sell winning trades. So we're just in this phase until this momentum stalls and a bit of selling kicks in. People aren't really thinking of selling. So it's gonna keep the price wanting to run higher.

Craig Hemke (16:09)
I'll give you one that has helped me out. If you pull up a weekly chart, Chris, you remember your Fibonacci said 4,100. On a weekly chart from when we first broke out back about two years ago and then into early 2024, price was going sideways for 90 days, broke out in March of 2024, rallied 15 or 20%, consolidated three months, broke out, rallied 15 or 20%, consolidated three months.

Chris Vermeulen (16:15)
Sure.

Craig Hemke (16:39)
Broke out earlier this year, rallied 15 or 20%. And now since just wrapped up a four month consolidation. And guess what? It's rallying 15 or 20 % again. That would project to 4,100. So if you believe in the bull market, why not get there to 4,100 sometime this month or next? Go sideways for three or four months while we shake everything out. And then the fun really gets going in 26. Anyway, no one here to listen to me talk. They want to hear you.

Chris Vermeulen (16:50)
There you go. The fun is already really going in the precious metal space. We got to enjoy this ride, right? The ride's been on for a while, actually, you the past year and a half, but now it's really getting explosive, especially in the minor space. But let's take a look at Silver, as you said.

Craig Hemke (17:09)
That's true. Right. Right. Yeah, let's take a look at silver because that's the one where on my site all over Twitter, there's a you know, this kind of dichotomy people are excited. You know, it's like, hey, what's going to happen? You know, gold moved all time highs 80 % past its old all time highs. Silver just getting back there and we all remember what happened in 2011 at these price levels. Where do you stand with all this Chris?

Chris Vermeulen (17:47)
Yeah, well, when we look at the monthly chart of silver, there's no doubt it's going parabolic. And I'm not a big fan of when things go straight up because it means a good chunk of it when it does reverse will be given back in most cases. So I'm excited. I do think we're going to see silver break above the 2011 highs. I think we're going to pop and break through that and probably see silver spike dramatically higher. I don't know where it's going to go, but it's rallying to the upside. ⁓

You really don't want to be fighting this trend. But what's interesting is if we look at the 10 minute chart down below here, we can actually see yesterday, which was October 2nd. If we look at the 10 minute chart, there was a pretty good bout of selling high volume selling in silver futures. I mean, we got right up to 48, like right up to, you know, pretty much testing all time highs. So there was definitely some big selling going on if some somebody lightening up their portfolio. We kind of saw that.

Craig Hemke (18:34)
Yeah, there was.

Chris Vermeulen (18:48)
Another bout of selling, not quite as heavy the day before that, but there's definitely some sellers running, you we're hitting resistance and some, sellers are unloading. It's actually the same for gold. we look at gold 10 minute chart as well, you can see we've had, if I go back, there was two days, a very strong selling in gold a couple of sessions ago. And again, on October 2nd. you know, this is, this is one of the early signs that there are some big institutions or some big, you know, big investors.

Craig Hemke (19:00)
That's 39.

Chris Vermeulen (19:18)
That are saying, hey, we're getting frothy and some people are obviously locking in some gains, lightening up contracts or their portfolio positions, ⁓ which is, it's not a bad sign. This just means volatility is picking up, which means it can pull back and it can rally very quickly. So now we're getting into the battle of fear of giving back too much gain and fear of missing out. So we're gonna have waves of selling of people saying, I'm worried, I'm worried. And then we're have waves of it as it pushes higher again, of people saying, my God, I gotta get in. Everybody's making money but me.

Craig Hemke (19:39)
Mm-hmm.

Chris Vermeulen (19:46)
And so we're in this phase right now where the volatility starts to pick up bigger rallies, bigger pullbacks, bouts of selling, big bouts of of kind of FOMO buying. So that's kind of where we're at. mean, at this point, you really just have to let this, you know, the next upside target really for silver is pretty much all time highs. That's what I think it's gunning for somewhere up around 49, 50 bucks an ounce. And we just have to let it unfold and let the price continue to kind of blast higher until we see some signs of short-term reversal and pause in the markets.

Craig Hemke (20:22)
How would you even try to draw a projection when it does? I'm not sure it'll get through that 4850 level on the first try, given how gold traded a couple of years ago when it was trying to make all-time highs. when it does break out, when you get an all-time high territory, how do you project where it might go next?

Chris Vermeulen (20:36)
Mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean, it'll be tough. Like, um, you kind of need more price action to unfold. I mean, you, there, there are really basic, basic way would be you take the depth of, of the price action here and you would literally just stack it on top. It's, it's a pretty barbaric way. It does work. does give you an idea of the volatility through this whole kind of basing and rally. You could see that move to the upside, which, you know, puts us around $85. I did talk a long, time ago that somewhere in the 80s, if we break out is potentially where silver could, you know, run into like spike and shoot higher into. So just based on this long-term chart pattern, that's kind of the next target. At this point, it's hard to get a gauge. There aren't any other Fibonacci tools like based on these runs here and these pullbacks, none of them break us up into where we are right now. We can't, we can't gauge beyond it. We've, we've run past the target that I've had in the previously and after that target, goes to all time highs. And then from there, it could just be the depth of this market. So ⁓ it's pretty exciting. mean, silver could really unwind. I had a member mentioned the other day, know, silver is at all time highs. But if you figure in inflation and stuff, it's really nowhere near that. And maybe that $85 an ounce brings us back to what it ⁓ is worth in today's dollar and all of that stuff. So it'll be interesting to see where this where this unfolds. We're definitely in that kind of roller coaster slash rocket ship ride. These silver and gold rockets are moving higher. And you know, the miners are a pretty good indicator of how parabolic things are. If we just look at the GDX and go back, you can see the 2011, 2012 highs. We're now like really shooting straight up and things are skyrocketing. It's the same with silver miners. If we look at the SILJ it's also going parabolic. And so, you know, as fun as exciting it is, we do need to be aware that usually when things go straight up and everybody's talking about it, everybody seems to be piling in, and if you say anything negative about this space, they cut your head off, that is like a red sign that, we're probably gonna see a little bit of profit taking, we're gonna see prices probably put in a short-term top ⁓ in some type of pullback to cleanse the market a little bit. And that's where I think we are is.

I don't know where the top is. It's hard to pick a top in a bubble. It's not worth trying. Just follow the trends up, ride them higher, ratchet your protective stops up. So if it does have a big reversal, you you can at least lock in gains in case you're not around and then you can reevaluate when to get back in. Cause you know, each time we've seen a lot of the miners and silver miners get up with these parabolic moves, we usually see a good chunk of that, that move given back.

And it's usually right when people don't think it's ever going to happen. Everybody's like, this time is different, which every time is different. So ⁓ that's kind of the scenario. It's we're in that perfect storm for precious metals and everybody is on board and ⁓ they're riding it up.

Craig Hemke (23:51)
Can almost lump it all together as with everything that we've discussed. ⁓ Kind of a time for all risk assets seem to be moving higher, ⁓ consistently higher, many of them in all time high territory. It does, I guess, lead me to two reminders. One, make sure you follow up and keep an eye on this space as we go through October, because it's going to be a very volatile month. But also, make sure you follow Chris.

Chris Vermeulen (24:02)
Mm-hmm.

Craig Hemke (24:20)
Chris tell everybody what you do at the technical traders so that as we manage this month of October and beyond through all the volatility how you can help

Chris Vermeulen (24:29)
Yeah, sure. Yeah, my whole focus is providing education. I show everybody each morning kind of before the opening bell of what the markets are doing, where they've gone, how it's gonna affect our positions. And then really I just manage my own portfolio and I share the exact trades and the reasons why I'm doing everything. And I trade ETFs and we just navigate these markets and really just kind of ride the coattails. It's all about having consistent growth. So I don't swing for the fences. ⁓

I'm looking to preserve large chunks of capital so that no matter what happens in the market, whether it's a financial crisis, flash crashes, COVID, know, 2022, little baby bear market, we just continue to watch our account move up and to the right. And we just navigate these markets with position and risk management. So it's not about, you know, making huge trades. That's for a different portion of a portfolio. This is for larger portfolios that want stability and and not have to worry about it. And it's really just following my trades. And I do about five to 12 portfolio adjustments a year. And that's what I do.

Craig Hemke (25:36)
But I know Eric Sprott is a big fan of your technical analysis too, so we can put that as a, put that feather in your cap, I suppose. Well, here we go, end of October, always pretty volatile month from the market history standpoint. We'll see where we go. It's gonna be fun to visit with you as we come around November and I look forward to it.

Chris Vermeulen (25:54)
Yeah, sounds great. Thanks, Craig.

Craig Hemke (25:56)
Thanks for your time, Chris. And again, keep an eye on this Sprott Money channel so you don't miss anything as we go through October, another Ask the Expert segment, more monthly wrap-up, analysis along the way. We'll try to help out as much as we can as the fourth quarter of 2025 begins. From all of us here at Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com, thanks for watching and we'll have more content for you as October continues to unfold.