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Ask The Expert

$7,000 Gold Incoming? How Mining Stocks Could Deliver 20 Baggers

Don Durrett and Craig Hemke on price of gold

Is this the start of a massive bull market in precious metals? In this episode, Craig Hemke for Sprott Money is joined by Don Durrett to break down the silver price, price of gold, and where the gold price and silver price are headed next.

GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET OUTLOOK AND MINING STOCK STRATEGY

The global financial system appears to be approaching a turning point, and according to mining analyst Don Durrett, the conditions are aligning for a major gold and silver bull market. In his discussion with Craig Hemke, Durrett presents a long-term perspective rooted in macroeconomic instability, rising debt levels, and persistent inflation. These factors, he argues, are not temporary issues but structural weaknesses that will eventually push precious metals significantly higher.

Durrett explains that his belief in gold and silver began in 2004 when he started accumulating mining stocks with the expectation of a future breakout. His strategy has always been based on the idea that excessive money printing and government spending would lead to a loss of confidence in fiat currencies. He describes the economy as fragile, comparing it to a “house of cards,” where even a small disruption could trigger a broader collapse. This long-term view has shaped his approach for over two decades.

For investors following the gold spot price and silver spot price, staying updated is critical.

 

HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD AND SILVER MINING STOCKS FOR MAXIMUM ALPHA

Durrett clearly distinguishes his approach from traditional investing. He considers himself a speculator focused on capturing large gains rather than small, steady returns. His goal is to identify opportunities that can deliver “big alpha,” meaning significant outperformance during a bull market.

He believes the current cycle is still in its early stages and could last several years. Unlike the shorter rally seen in 2011, he expects this bull market to be more sustained and powerful. His strategy involves building a diversified portfolio that includes major producers, ETFs, and a large number of junior mining companies. This approach allows him to benefit from both stability and high-growth potential.

For those looking to buy gold or buy silver, physical bullion remains an essential part of a balanced strategy. 

 

MINING STOCK STRATEGY: FINDING 10 BAGGERS AND 20 BAGGERS

A key component of Durrett’s strategy is his focus on identifying stocks with the potential to deliver exponential returns. He frequently searches for “10 baggers,” or stocks that can increase tenfold, and believes that in a strong bull market, even larger gains are possible. Mining stocks offer this kind of leverage because their profitability increases rapidly as metal prices rise.

He emphasizes the importance of holding a wide range of mining stocks to maximize exposure to potential winners. According to him, missing even one major success story can significantly reduce overall returns. His approach is based on the belief that while the entire sector may benefit from rising gold and silver prices, only a select group of companies will generate exceptional gains.

Durrett also highlights the importance of production growth and resource size. Companies with large reserves and the ability to expand output are particularly well-positioned to benefit from higher prices. These characteristics can lead to dramatic increases in valuation during a bull market.

 

GOLD VS STOCK MARKET: A SHIFT IN INVESTOR SENTIMENT

One of the most important themes discussed is the unusual relationship between gold and the stock market. Typically, gold performs well during economic uncertainty, while stocks thrive during periods of growth. However, both have recently been strong at the same time, which Durrett sees as a sign that something is out of balance.

He believes this situation will eventually resolve, leading to a shift in investor sentiment. When the stock market begins to weaken and gold continues to rise, large institutional investors are likely to move capital into mining stocks. This transition could mark the beginning of the most powerful phase of the bull market.

Institutional participation is critical because it brings significant capital into the sector. Once pension funds and large investment firms start allocating to gold and silver equities, prices can rise quickly, leaving limited opportunities for late investors.

 

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK

Durrett points to several ongoing economic challenges that support his bullish outlook. Inflation remains elevated, interest rates are high, and energy costs continue to pressure both consumers and businesses. These factors create a difficult environment for economic growth while increasing the appeal of hard assets like gold and silver.

He emphasizes that these issues existed before recent global events and are unlikely to disappear quickly. As a result, the current economic backdrop provides strong support for higher precious metals prices. While short-term corrections may occur, he views them as buying opportunities rather than reasons to exit the market.

For those wanting to learn more about precious metals investing, additional resources are available here:

DEVELOPMENT VS EXPLORATION IN MINING INVESTMENTS

Durrett also explains the importance of understanding different types of mining companies. Exploration companies can offer high rewards but come with significant risk. To manage this, he has developed strict criteria for identifying opportunities with a strong advantage.

He prefers development-stage companies that have already identified valuable resources and are moving toward production. These companies tend to offer a better balance between risk and reward. He uses a detailed checklist to evaluate them, focusing on factors such as insider ownership, project quality, and growth potential.

Insider ownership is especially important because it aligns management with shareholders. When executives have a significant stake in the company, they are more likely to make decisions that create long-term value.

 

CONCLUSION: WHY NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY GOLD AND SILVER

The insights shared in this discussion suggest that the gold and silver markets may be entering a major growth phase. With economic pressures building and investor sentiment likely to shift, the opportunity to invest in precious metals and mining stocks could be significant.

Durrett’s strategy is based on a simple idea: focus on the long-term direction of gold and silver prices and position accordingly. By identifying strong companies with high upside potential and maintaining patience, investors can benefit from the full cycle of the bull market.

For those considering whether to buy gold or buy silver, the current environment may provide an early entry point before broader market participation drives prices higher. Opportunities like this do not last forever, and those who act early may be best positioned to benefit.

Now is the time to build exposure, focus on quality assets, and prepare for what could become one of the most powerful bull markets in precious metals history.

Craig Hemke (00:00)
Hello again from Sprott Money at SprottMoney.com. It is now April in the second quarter of 2026 and what a year we've had so far. And it is time for your Ask the Expert segment. I'm your host, Craig Hemke. Joining us this month is Don Durrett. Don, ⁓ I'm sure you've probably heard of him before. He's a terrific mining sector analyst.

If you remember the last time I had Eric on for one of these back in December, Eric was rattling off people that he follows closely and pays attention and respects. And he listed Don as somebody who's, he watches what he posts every day. So I thought, well, we've got to get Don on here. So anyway, Don Durrett, goldstockdata.com. Don, thank you for joining me.

Don Durrett (00:45)
Yeah, Craig, this is a bit surreal. mean, I've been following you for years, and so be able to talk with you is great.

Craig Hemke (00:51)
Come on now, geez Louise. Flattering and buttering up the host will get you anywhere. Anyway, thank you Don. And again, thanks Sprott Money to everybody watching. If you're buying, if you're selling, if you're looking to store your metal, great deals always at SprottMoney. SprottMoney.com. Go to the website or give them a call at 888-861-0775 and they will help you out.

Don Durrett (00:53)
Have, I have.

Craig Hemke (01:19)
⁓ Further about Don, Don's been doing it. I'll let Don explain how long he's been at this. Goldstockdata.com is his website. He has ⁓ written a book, one of the few books that really teach you how to invest in gold and silver. And that's the name of the book, How to Invest in Gold and Silver. It's good marketing there, Don. He writes a great Substack, dondurett.substack.com. He's on Twitter, at Don Durett. Okay, all these different ways you can track him down. ⁓

Maybe just give everybody a little bit of your background and a little bit about your site and your services.

Don Durrett (01:53)
Well, thing I want to say about the book, it's mainly about mining stocks. I I named it How to Invest in Gold and Silver, but the majority of the book is all about analyzing mining stocks because that's kind of what I was trying to get to. I probably titled it wrong. The subtitle includes mining stocks, but How to Invest in Gold and Silver. It's focused really on mining stocks. But my website...

Yeah, thanks for let me talk a little bit about it. It's really a great tool for anybody that owns mining stocks That's why I created it. So I when I started doing this in 2004 And I've been doing it pretty much religiously Since then I never stopped. I Started I jumped in, you know completely. I'm I'm a gold and silver bug and I believe they're going higher I

For me, it's all about a trade. I believe that ⁓ gold and silver are going to have this massive bull market. I thought it would come earlier. I started in 2004 collecting these mining stocks. And I'm not an investor. I'm a speculator. I consider this a trade. I thought that I was going to get out. thought what's happening now I thought would have already happened. I was going to buy a bunch of mining stocks and ride it to the top.

And we got to 2011 and it didn't feel like a top and it was pretty short period, It was like six months. That wasn't a top. When we get a bull market, I always thought it was going to last a while, know, one, two, three years. And I think this one will last at least two years. I think it began in August. And so for me, I'm riding this to the top. Now, I've always believed that the reason why

gold is going to have this massive bull market, if you will, is kind of what George Bush Sr. said, voodoo economics, this whole idea that you can print money, that you can spend and pretend. I never believed it. I'm more the Austrian guy. You got to have sound money or else you're creating a big bubble, right? Which we've learned. And so for instance, right now, as we speak, we can get into this a little bit more. You my belief is this, the US economy is a house of cards.

Craig Hemke (03:55)
Yeah.

Don Durrett (04:13)
or a big Jenga puzzle. You pull one peg out and the whole thing's gonna fall down. I really believe that. And that's the bull market. So basically this debt bubble, so I was big into the debt bubble before it really got huge, right? So I anticipated it was gonna get huge. And now it is huge, absolutely, a trillion dollars in interest payments. And we can talk about data point after data point after data point that's at historic levels.

Craig Hemke (04:27)
Right.

Don Durrett (04:40)
I mean, the Buffett indicator alone, yesterday I read 233%. That's why Buffett is 30 % of his fund is in cash, because he's going, this is insanity. And it's one after another after another. The University of Michigan consumer confidence went under 50. Under 50, we never saw below 55 ever. It's under 50 as we speak. It's like, what the hell's going on? You got an all time high and the consumer confidence is under 50. Normally,

Craig Hemke (04:48)
right.

you

Don Durrett (05:09)
When the economy is growing, it's at over 80. It's like, what the hell is going on? So I was right. My thesis was right about this bull market's coming. It's going to happen. So I'm jumping into these mining stocks. And I was focused on the future. I was focused on, OK, if I'm right about this bull market, that means gold and silver prices are going to go really, really high, and the miners are going to get really, really valued.

So I've been collecting them. just buy 10 baggers. I've been basically, now earlier I bought a lot of five baggers, you cause I want to have a real solid foundation I can lean on. I have mutual funds, ETFs and majors and high quality mid tiers that I lean on. And then I buy 10 baggers. So I have about 165 stocks. Eric Sprott has a few more than me, but I haven't found enough 10 baggers, but I don't think I'll catch up to him.

But he's not that far ahead, 175, something like that. Yeah, a little bit bigger. But the quantity of stocks, we're kind of in the same ballpark. We like to own everything. If you don't have everything and the market is huge, you go up bigly. And that's what we're after. We're after big alpha. That's why we're simpatico. We're both chasing alpha because we believe alpha is there to be had. I'll give you one example. I bought a Vino at 50 cents.

Craig Hemke (06:08)
His positions were just a little bigger.

Don Durrett (06:35)
And I told everybody, said, look, this is probably the best stock out there. Buy it to the bottom. It got down to about 43. That was about as low as it got. Today it's about $7. My target is $5 for Avino. They have 300. Today they came out with ⁓ a resource of 387 million ounces of silver equivalent. They're only producing 2.5. So that tells you the growth they have, right? And they have organic growth to get to eight, nine million ounces.

So my $5 target isn't that crazy talk. Now that's a $200 silver, but that's my target. But if it gets to $5, if you do the math, that's a 250 bagger. If it goes to a dollar, it's like, I think $50, it's 10 bagger. It was already a 10 bagger. My math and my head, it gets crazy. But it's basically, it's 250 bagger. I guess it's a 50 bagger if gets to a dollar. So 250 bagger.

Craig Hemke (07:27)
That's right.

lot of packed.

Don Durrett (07:34)
I mean, those are the kind of leverage that you get in these miners. So 20 baggers, believe it or not, are going to be somewhat the norm. So I'm looking for 10 baggers. But if you find a 10 bagger and it doubles, that's all it has to do. You have a 10 bagger, goes up 1x, it's a 20 bagger. If you find a 5 bagger and at 1x, you got a 10 bagger. So find 5 baggers and 10 baggers and you're going to find 20 baggers.

This is going to happen. I mean, in the mining sector, a one-bagger is nothing. So if you find a 10-bagger, you probably found a 20-bagger, which is kind of crazy talk, right? It's kind of crazy talk. I've been doing this for 20 years, and it's always been crazy talk. But now in a bull market, it's not so crazy talk anymore, right? A one-bagger's life can happen overnight.

Craig Hemke (08:25)
Yeah.

So Donna, let me kind of direct you to the situation we're in. We got off to a hot start, obviously, in January and then recovered beautifully in February. Man, I signed off. I'll never forget it. February 27th, I printed the monthly charts and everything. Great. And then I wake up Saturday the 28th and say, uh-oh.

I would imagine you probably see this the way I do, but I'm to let you answer the question. mean, we've gone now, this higher energy cost is somehow driving fears of inflation and interest rate hikes, when to me, ⁓ it's more of a ⁓ higher energy costs are going to slow the economy and lead to interest rate cuts. Do you think the market's getting it wrong? Am I getting it wrong?

Don Durrett (09:21)
Well, yeah, let me explain. So the bull market, I believe, in the gold and silver miners started in August. In August, the beginning of August, silver was at $35. You weren't in market yet. And then we ripped. By the end of August, we were off and running. We got about $40 off and running. We were in a bull market. But the bull market wasn't, we had, it was just like this first surge, right, to October. Almost about a two month surge. And then you had a correction.

Craig Hemke (09:31)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Don Durrett (09:50)
And that correction lasts about four weeks. Then we had another big rip after that in December and January. And then we had another correction. And then we almost retraced back, gold's down 17%, silver's down over 50 to get to the top. For gold to get back to its all-time high, 17%, silver 50. But these corrections are normal. That's what you expect in bull markets.

But you always get higher highs. So I lived through the last bull market and we had a lot, every year we had corrections, but you'd have a higher low and a higher high. You just keep rolling back up. We went from $250 to $1935, basically 8X. And this one here, you know, we're going to do that. We're going to, think we're going to do the exact same thing. I think seven, $8,000 is kind of where we're going. So it's just a little correction. Now, the one thing about where we're at right now as I speak,

I've been saying this bull market really hasn't hit its stride yet. So we're still in this period where there's minus stocks are still as cheap. The sentiment hasn't improved yet. So I've been doing this for 20 years, so I kind of get the feel for it. I mean, if you look at the free cash flow multiples of the high quality names, they're very low. So we really don't have a strong sentiment.

And you have to understand why. So we're early innings in this bull market and we haven't hit our stride yet. We really don't have the wind at our back yet. You have to ask yourself why. And I've been trying to tell people, you need certain factors before the bull market really kicks into gear. And once it kicks into gear, then you have to start thinking about the top when it gets frothy. But it's not going to get frothy until it kicks into gear. Now, how does it kick into gear? When is the bull market in miners really working?

Craig Hemke (11:13)
Yeah.

Don Durrett (11:43)
Well, it's very simple to understand. All you have to do is go back to 1999, 2000, 2001. So gold was dead, right? And the stock market was ripping. And then the stock market died in January of 2000. You had the dot-com bubble burst. Then you had 9-11 in 2001. Gold was at $250. What happened for the next seven years? Stock market was flat. Gold and silver went up. The miners ripped.

Craig Hemke (11:51)
Yeah.

Thank

Don Durrett (12:09)
So that's what we're waiting for. That's when you get your stride. That's when sentiment improves. And the reason why is because people are like, I got to make some money. Where do I make money at? For instance, the insurance companies and the pension funds, they got to pay out every month. They got to pay stuff out. They got to make money, right? It's like, they can't just sit there and make no money. They go broke, right? They got to make money. So they're like, okay, what's working? Well, the miners are working. Okay, let's buy some of those.

Craig Hemke (12:33)
Yeah.

Don Durrett (12:34)
Invest investment companies and pension funds, those are big institutions. So they jump on board. So they buy the majors and it funnels down to the mid tiers and the explorers. That's how it works. Right now, the insurance companies and the pension funds and Wall Street is like, hey, we're making 20 % a year buying the Mag-7. We don't need those gold miners. So that's what we're waiting for. And I call it the battle, the final battle. So the battle is between the S &P 500 and gold.

Craig Hemke (12:55)
Right, right.

Don Durrett (13:04)
Now, isn't it fascinating that basically since January, February of 2024, they've basically been fighting it out, right? Gold in the all-time high, S &P at all-time high. That shouldn't happen. It shouldn't happen. Gold and the economy are supposed to be opposites. One's supposed to be working, right? It's either the economy is a problem, I want gold, the economy's good, I don't want gold. One or the other. From 1982 to 2000, gold was

Craig Hemke (13:12)
Mm-hmm.

Don Durrett (13:33)
totally in the toilet. Why? Because the economy was growing. That's how it's supposed to work. when the economy, and so what the hell's going on here? So this is the final battle, the last man standing. Who's going to win? Right? Every time you have a correction in gold over the last two years, every single time, if the stock market went up, gold said, okay, here I come. I'm still fighting. I'm rocky, man. You can knock me on my butt, but I'm coming back. Here I come. Every single time.

Craig Hemke (13:55)
Mm-hmm.

Don Durrett (14:03)
The gold has just ripped to a new all-time high. And it's going to do it again. So what we're waiting for here, we're waiting for that final battle to end. And where it's going to happen is you're going to have a death cross where the S &P is going down and gold is going up. And the death cross, I think, is going to be right around $5,500 on the S &P. So the S &P goes below $5,500, gold goes above it. That's the death cross.

And the S &P and gold, once they crisscross, is like, here we go. That's when sentiment flips. That's when we got the winner back. And ironically, that's when I can't buy any more miners, because at that point, everything's going to be pricey. No more 10-baggers to be found. So I really believe that's going to happen this year. I thought it was going to be a second half story. It could still happen here in April if this war doesn't get resolved.

Craig Hemke (14:45)
Right.

Don Durrett (14:59)
and the Iranians get a little aggressive and belligerent. They do that. Oil prices spike to 130. It could happen now. But we don't know what's going to happen with this war. the thing is, as I've been saying, is that what people don't realize, me and you do, we do, what people don't realize is this economy had a problem before the war. The economic problems, they didn't arise because of this war. They are already there.

And they haven't gone away. I heard a guy make a really, really good argument. I definitely, and I didn't really think of it that way. And basically what he said was, that inflation is high and it's not going down. Interest rates are high and they're not going down. Gasoline is high and it's not going down. And so if you think everything's going to be rosy,

over the next two to three months, like stock market is an all-time high, it's got those three problems to deal with for the next couple of months. Because I don't think that oil is really going to just slip back down below 80 very easily and gasoline prices drop. So we got high gasoline prices for another couple of months, high interest rates maybe for the rest of the year, inflation probably for the rest of the year. So we got headwinds here. ⁓ I personally, I think we're going to get

a significant correction in gold and silver soon. I don't know if it's going to happen in April, May, June, but right now we're about 4750. I think we're going back down to at least 4300, maybe even lower. And so I'm waiting for that correction for my next buy.

Craig Hemke (16:47)
So that kind of leads me into what's been going on with the shares because like I said, at end of February, GDX made all time high in the last day of the month. Looked great. The hammer that's been used on them over the last six, seven weeks is this compressing margins. know, they're all in sustaining costs of the producers going up because of higher energy prices while the top line, what they can sell the metal at is coming down. Is that?

overdone? Is that anticipating more metal weakness like what you're forecasting, Don? What do you think?

Don Durrett (17:24)
So I'm a speculator. So from my perspective, that's just noise. The one thing as a speculator, I want to get to the top of the mountain. I don't care about 2026. I really don't. I'm not going to sell any stocks in 2026. I'm not after a one-bagger. I want big alpha. I want to get to the top of the mountain. So what the current margins are today, what the profitability of a new one is today.

in many respects to me is irrelevant. What's relevant is the macro situation for gold. Is gold going to $7,000? That's what's important and getting way ahead of it. Like Druckenmiller always says, don't focus on now, focus on what's going to happen. And so what's going to happen is we're going to get to the top of the mountain. When you get to the top of mountain, you're going to want it. For instance, my target price for Newmont is $500.

Craig Hemke (17:56)
Yeah, okay.

Don Durrett (18:21)
It's currently trading under 120. Now, your eyes are popping out, but I can show you the math. If you look at their multiple right now, it's 10, and they're mining 5.6 million ounces. So if you go to 7,000, even if their ASIC is $2,000, do the math on the free cash flow and put a 25 multiple on it. What do you get? $500. So it's just math.

Craig Hemke (18:26)
Yeah, no I'm sure.

There you go. Yeah.

Don Durrett (18:48)
If Newmont's going to 500 bucks, who cares about what's happening in Q1 2026, right? The only thing you care about is that Newmont is mining 5.6 million ounces when they get to the top of the mountain, and that their costs are not $4,000. And I don't think that will be. So, we're betting on gold prices going higher. And we're making some assumptions. We're making assumptions we're not going to have hyperinflation.

Craig Hemke (18:53)
Yeah, yeah, that's the right way to look at it.

Don Durrett (19:18)
We're making assumptions we're not gonna have these massive taxes, royalty taxes, et cetera, where they get brutalized. And we are gonna get rug pulled in certain ways. But if we get to the top of the mountain and we own Newmont, now I was telling everybody to buy Newmont at $30. I said, look, ⁓ see, I'm a buy to the bottom, sell to the top guy. When I see a bottom, I let people know, hey everybody, Newmont's at the bottom, buy to the bottom, we're there.

30 bucks. It never got to 29. It had a 29 in a handle, but it never got below 29. 29.50, 29.70, something like that. But at 30 bucks, I said, that's the bottom, people. You see it? You see it? Okay, so Newmont, if you would have bought Newmont at 30, it was a 10-bagger all day long, which is, there's my 10-baggers, right? Now, I didn't...

buy Newmont because I own three mutual funds and Newmont is one of the biggest positions, all three, and I own six or seven mutual funds, mean ETFs I mean, and it's one of the largest position in all of those. Well, not the silver ones, but the gold ones. So I had enough in Newmont already, I didn't buy it. But if I didn't own ETFs or mutual funds, I would have been buying it for sure. It was a 10 bagger. so now, but Wall Street, want

Craig Hemke (20:17)
Right. Right.

Don Durrett (20:42)
20 % returns. You give me 20%, I'm happy, right, in Wall Street. You give me 25%, I'm really happy, right? Newmont is going to go from 120, where's that today, to 500. At a certain point, they're like, man, I can get my 20 % pretty damn easy if I buy some Newmont. So when Newmont gets to 150, 175, 200, somewhere in there, people are going to start buying it. And the multiple is going to go up.

Craig Hemke (20:59)
You think, yeah, you think they figured that out.

Don Durrett (21:11)
I think a 25 multiple is conservative for where it's currently at 10. So you're buying it for less than half off right now. And that's just one example. And that's one of the leaders, right? And it's one after another after another. This isn't going to last that much longer. One final point I want to make is that I posted my, I don't call it my favorite, I showed a stock list of silver miners and a stock list of gold miners.

Craig Hemke (21:20)
Right.

Don Durrett (21:41)
about 25 of each yesterday on X. You guys can go find the stocks I like. By the way, Grok said that I'm going to make 2,000 to 5,000 millionaires. so go look at my stock picks. I definitely know my stuff. I was shocked. I didn't even ask Grok. Grok just told me. I'm having a conversation with Grok and just throws it out there.

Craig Hemke (21:45)
Yeah, I that.

Hey, that's a legacy.

That's the legacy right there.

Ha

Don Durrett (22:10)
Yeah, you're gonna make 2000 to 5000 millionaires, Don. What?

Craig Hemke (22:10)
Really? Okay.

well, and let's, let's close with that last question then done. ⁓ I said your list, I saw yesterday on X and I mean, you're very, ⁓ free flowing with that information for people. And I think that's wonderful. ⁓ but how do you, I mean, you're in this search for a 10 bagger that can become a 20 bagger. How do you, what's the core purpose? mean, the core, I guess, thesis of your analysis that helps you to identify those.

Don Durrett (22:23)
cool.

Craig Hemke (22:44)
ahead of time.

Don Durrett (22:47)
So, yeah, so when I went into this in 2004, I started buying juniors. At the time, I knew nothing, zero. So I had to learn from scratch and I had to learn on my own because there wasn't any books. And most of your newsletter writers, they just give you stocks. They don't really give you how to do it. There's no how-to manual. So I had to learn on my own.

Craig Hemke (23:05)
Right.

Don Durrett (23:13)
And what I learned, and it took me two years to have a clue, literally two years to have a clue what I was doing. What I learned was you can have an edge. And so the key is, and if you don't have an edge, you got a problem. And so I found that you can't really have an edge with exploration companies unless, I just gave a presentation at the Metals Invest Reform in PDAC and I basically explained my methodology. And I'm going to give you kind of the shortcut here, a short version.

So in exploration, I have two rules. so all of these, you have to have an edge. So in exploration, can have an edge only two ways, in my opinion. One is you buy gold in the ground or silver in the ground way under market, like free gold ventures. All you do, you buy it undervalued and you just sit back and get paid. That's the rule number one. The second one is you buy it early in the Lassonde curve. So that means it's very cheap and they have a significant discovery.

Those are my only two rules. If they don't pass those two rules, you don't have an edge. You're just gambling. Okay, the next one is development plays. Development plays, have six, I have a checklist of six items. And those six items, I basically rank them from like five to nine. And I don't want any fives. I want seven, eight, nines on all six. So if I find a company, I say checks all the boxes. If it has all six, then I buy it.

Craig Hemke (24:39)
Yeah.

Don Durrett (24:39)
And

one of those six is a 10 bag upside, right? Well, another one is really important is insiders. Developers are going to break your heart, but I want the investors to have so much skin in the game, they're not giving it away. Because a lot of these, what we're seeing today in the development space is we're seeing company after company pivot from exploration to development, because if they sell it for 100 % premium, they're giving it away. Literally. I remember talking to Fury Gold.

Craig Hemke (24:52)
Mm-hmm.

Don Durrett (25:09)
and White Gold. I'll give you a couple really interesting stories. The first one was White Gold. White Gold is an exploration company in Yukon. And at Beaver Creek, they were on my schedule, but I don't know how. My schedule's full, but there's White Gold, and I didn't sign up for it. And I didn't go. I didn't sign up for this. I didn't go. Then the next day, they threw it on my schedule again. I'm going, what the hell? Okay, I'll go. What the hell?

And so I go in and I go, I didn't sign up for this. I'm not sure why we're here. You guys are an exploration company and I'm not really interested. And I said, but I'll tell you what, and there was like three of them in the room. One of them was the CEO. So I tell you what, I'm going to tell you why the project generator model doesn't work. And I said, you tell me one project generator for the last 20 years made any money. Tell me one, go ahead. Crickets, right? Crickets, there isn't any, none, zero.

You know, and the reason why the project, it just doesn't work. And I told them, said, I'll you what, I'll tell you what to do. I go, there's two things you can do to change your company to make it. One, you can pivot into development. The other one is you can take a project all the way to where it's ready to be built and then sell it, keep 50 % and do free carry. And so all you have to do is, you know,

pay for the 50 % capbacks or just keep 50 % and let them build the whole thing and just give them 50, but it's completely de-risked. And they have this golden saddle project that's beautiful. It's like, take that baby all the way to ready to be built, keep 50%, rinse and repeat, do it to the next one. Nobody's doing this model. But I said, ideally what you guys should do is build the thing. Guess what they did? They're building it. They pivoted.

And they're not the only one. A lot of companies are doing this. They're pivoting. Newfound Gold did that. They were basically exploration pivoted into production. Smart. Scotty Resources did it. Scotty Resources were exploration. Now, as soon as White Gold did that, I bought it. As soon as Scotty pivoted, I bought it. I already own Newfound Gold, but next one, I hate to say this because now I'm going to...

I'm not going to buy it until the next dip, but the company that just did this, I had a meeting with these guys about two years ago. And I said, look, you guys have three advanced projects. As an exploration company, you're not going to add any value. This is about three years ago. And they haven't. It was Fury Gold. I told them, you're a development company. Don't you even know what you are? No, we're exploration. I go, you're never going to add value. It's just not going to happen.

Craig Hemke (27:52)
You

Don Durrett (27:59)
Right? Your projects are already advanced. What are you going to do? Add a few ounces and people are going to get excited? He's like, what the hell are you guys doing? Guess what Fury Gold did? Like the last week, they pivoted into production. the thing is crazy is their CEO came out with a YouTube video and he's practically begging you to believe him. He says it like three times. He says it like three times. Yeah, we're hiring people. We're going to build this mine. Okay, we heard you in about five minutes later.

Craig Hemke (28:05)
Yeah.

There you go.

You

Don Durrett (28:28)
Yeah, we're hiring people

who are going to build this mine. So development ⁓ is the way to go and exploration isn't. Now in development, insiders, I'm not going to… so you have these checklists. You do the checklist for producers as well. That's how you know if you have an edge. And I have it on my website. I have it in my book, these checklists. You want to make sure they check all the boxes. And if they do, you have an edge because all you need is gold or silver prices to go higher. That's all you need, one variable.

So you take everything else out of the picture and you have one variable. Now, there's no such thing as a slam dunk winner in mining stocks, but what you have is an edge. might, because eight out of 10 of these projects in development, two out of 10 exploration plays will probably work. Eight out of 10 development plays are going to probably work. Now you might not get a 10 bagger, but it'll probably work if it checks all the boxes. So you got an edge there. 80%. That's not bad. Producers are even better.

If you can find, if you find like a vino, for instance, that undervalue producer, an undervalue producer with upside is like the best is the sweetest thing you can find. ⁓ and so that's how I do it all. ⁓ it was a pleasure being on your show. I enjoyed it. We'll do it again. I'm ready to come on to ask, ask the experts, right?

Craig Hemke (29:46)
Well, you are definitely set expert, brother. ⁓ I've learned so much just sitting here listening to you talk. ⁓ And I can't wait to have you back. We'll have to do this again before too long. In the meantime, I think everybody's been watching. If you're interested in the mining shares, adding that alpha on top of your physical precious metal, not a whole lot still, even after all this time, how many, there's not very many people that do what you do.

Don Durrett (29:53)
Thank you.

No, it took a lot of years to learn though. I put in my 10,000 hours.

Craig Hemke (30:15)
Well, that's maybe that's part of it.

Yeah. And maybe that's all part of it. You know, we were such an unloved sector wandering in the desert, you know, for from 13 to 23, really. And then, you know, the years prior to that, when you got started in 2004, that there's plenty of experts in mag seven stocks and things like that. But there's just nobody, not enough people that really know the mining sector. And clearly you do. And again, Don Durant, you can find him at gold stock.

data.com, all one word, track him on Twitter, go to his sub stack and be educated and informed. does a great job. got something Don, you kind of look like you're waving at me. You got something else you want to add? No. It was great. I really enjoyed visiting with you, Don, and we will certainly do this again. And from all of us here at Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com, thanks for watching, but hit the like or the subscribe button because there's going to be more content coming.

Don Durrett (30:56)
I just want to say thanks again, man. I enjoyed it. It was great.

Craig Hemke (31:12)
Over the course of this month and over the course of the rest of the year You don't want to miss any of it with everything's going on in the world So hit that subscribe button so you're notified every time there's something new. We'll be back later this month with more so keep an eye on this channel and We'll see you again

 

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