To Counter the Silver Hype

Let's start with this link from two weeks ago. Back then, there were multiple reports that silver had just put in a "double top" and the silver price was destined for a "sharp correction". I took issue with that "analysis" and wrote about it here.

In the time since, the double-top callers have been forced to seek cover as price has surged to new all-time highs. On the updated chart, it looks like this: 

Silver Price - Daily Candlestick Chart

That's a very healthy-looking chart, and price appears poised to move even higher into year end. 

Key Drivers Pushing Silver Prices Higher in 2025

And what will drive price higher? All or some of these factors: 

Debunking the COMEX Delivery Demand Myth

What is NOT driving price higher? 

And that's what I want to address today, as I've seen all sorts of nonsensical commentary on X that attributes the current move in the silver price to "record delivery demand" and "imminent COMEX failure". 

I'm not going to name names because most of the culprits are new to the precious metals and simply don't know any better. They see numbers and then analyze them without historical context. Fifteen years at TF Metals Report allows me to see things a little more clearly. 

Let's start here—and again, this is just a small collection of what I've seen. However, there are many X accounts that have picked up this idea and run with it: 

Please allow me to state this unequivocally: There was no massive, market-altering delivery request of 7,330 contracts last Thursday! What happened was nothing unusual.  And now for some of that historical context. 

COMEX Delivery and Open Interest: A Historical Perspective

There are five "delivery months" on COMEX each year. At TF Metals Report, we track how many contracts are left open and "standing for delivery" for each of these months. We then also monitor how many actual "deliveries" are made. Since December 2024, what are the totals? See below: 

From that list, a few things should immediately catch your eye. If anything, be sure to note that the total standing in December is almost identical to September and FAR BELOW what was seen in March and May.  

And what about this supposed "massive order for 7,330 contracts"? That's nothing more than the typical surge of "deliveries" that we see on the first day every time. There were 9,866 contracts left open and "standing for delivery", and 7,330 were immediately delivered. That's how it always works. And it wasn't just one big order either. Every day, the CME updates the daily, monthly, and yearly totals, and you can follow along at this link—though apparently not many "analysts" do.

Next, please review the pages below. Note that, thus far for December, the vast majority of silver "deliveries" have been stopped (taken) by three sources: the House (proprietary) accounts of Deutsche Bank and RBC as well as the Customer accounts of JP Morgan. None of this is unusual as you can see by the total at JPM for every month so far in 2025. 

Why Silver’s Rally Is Driven by Fundamentals, Not Hype

So once and for all, let's dispense with the nonsense of how "one massive delivery request nearly took down the COMEX and forced the CME to pull the plug on Thursday evening". That's simply and verifiably untrue. The delivery month of Dec25 is no busier than September, and it's proceeding along with business as usual. 

With that behind us, let's next review this: 

Again, I'm not picking on anyone as there are multiple accounts and videos out there promoting the idea that somehow the open interest rollover from Dec25 to Mar25 is unusual and/or a sign of stress on COMEX. It's not anything of the sort. 

The delivery month contracts are where you'll always find the majority of the open interest and trading volume. And since only a small percentage of the delivery month contracts actually get "delivered", most of the trading action and volume rolls over to the next delivery month in the waning days before delivery begins. Again, that's just how it works. 

If we go back to Friday, November 7, there were 96,354 Dec25 silver contracts open and trading. By November 14, that number had shrunk to 70,253. By November 21, it was just 42,744 on its way down to the 9,866 noted above that remained open and "standing for delivery" on November 26. 

Where did that open interest go? Nowhere. It simply migrated to the next front month of Mar26, which grew last week as follows: 

The Mar26 is now the front month, and that's where you'll find the trading action and volume all through December and January. Then, once we get to February, the open interest will begin to dwindle as Mar26s are closed and rolled/migrated to the next front month of May26. This isn't complicated, and once again, that's simply how it works. As such, I hope you understand that, at present, there is nothing unusual about the Dec25 OI or the Mar26 OI. Anyone who states otherwise is simply inexperienced or attempting to create clickbait hype. 

I could continue with more examples, but this post is already lengthy enough. Let's conclude with this... 

The silver price is experiencing an amazing rally, following in the footsteps of "Big Brother Gold", which made a similar breakout to new all-time highs in March of 2024 and has since doubled in price. The silver price will also double to $95-100 per ounce in the months ahead, but it will do so based upon strong physical demand, dwindling physical supply, and Momo-chasing algos buying the COMEX futures.  

Yes, the London/NY Digital Derivative and Fractional Reserve Pricing Scheme will one day collapse under the weight of its own massive leverage and fraud. But at this time, the fundamental rationale for buying and holding physical silver is really all that matters. Following the hype and hyperbole on the internet will only lead to short-term frustration and disappointment.