Caught Up On CoTs | 2026 Silver Price Surge

CFTC CoT Data Returns After Shutdown

Let's first be sure to note that the CFTC is almost caught up. As I type this on January 5, the most recent report was surveyed on December 23, and we'll look at that data today. The first current and up-to-date CoT report will be surveyed at the COMEX close January 6 and issued at 3:30 pm EST on Friday, January 9. As prep for that report, let's look at the most recent one and compare the positioning to where things stood when reporting stopped in late September, nine weeks earlier. 

For COMEX gold, the changes are about as you would expect if you've followed the price and positioning trends for as long as I have. On Tuesday, September 23, the current front month Feb26 COMEX gold contract closed at $3,826. The CoT survey that day showed these positions with total open interest at 528,789 contracts. 

Items to note: 

COMEX Gold: No Signs of Speculative Excess

Twelve weeks later and as of December 23, price had risen to $4506. How had the positioning changed? First, note that total contract open interest has FALLEN to 492,103. So much for the notion of "speculative excess" and a "crowded" trade.  

What else? 

What had changed as price rallied 17.8% in 90 days? Not much! And again, where's this supposedly "crowded trade" of mass speculation? It's certainly not on COMEX! There, it's just business as usual. The Commercials are short and the Specs are long, with levels at or below the historical average. 

Silver Price Surges 57% Amid Changing COMEX Positions

But what about silver price? That's where it gets interesting! 

On Tuesday, September 23, the Mar26 silver contract finished the day at $45.12. From the survey, how were participants positioned? See below: 

But now look at the most recent report, surveyed on December 23 when price closed at $71.14 or a whopping 57.7% higher. 

Physical Demand, Not Speculation, Drives Silver Higher

Again, so much for the narrative of how speculators and hedge funds are driving a surge of futures buying that is creating a "bubble". That's demonstrably untrue as the CoT data shows. So if it's not rampant speculation, then what is driving the rally in silver? Well, as we wrote two weeks ago, some of it is short covering by U.S. Banks. The most recent Bank Participation Report from early December revealed the data cited in that post, and I'll be very interested to see what the next report shows when it's released this coming Friday. 

But Bank short-covering alone does not explain a 57%, 12-week rally. Quite obviously, there's more going on here. Persistent "backwardation" of the spot price to the front month futures price first appeared on October 2, and this is a sign of significant physical metal demand. More physically-based markets in Shanghai and Dubai now see consistent 10% premiums versus the London spot or New York futures price, and this, no doubt, is impacting the "western" price too. 

2026 Outlook: A Major Year for Precious Metals

In summary, it will be nice to have updated Commitment of Traders and Bank Participation reports again and I look forward to reviewing the current data later this week. In the meantime, I hope this column helps you to better understand the factors that are currently driving prices higher. It's not the presumed speculative futures demand that's put forth as an explanation by uninformed mainstream media outlets. Instead, prices are being driven higher by the demand for physical metal. This has been the trend since 2023, and that trend is going to continue in 2026.  

As such, buckle up. It's going to be a very exciting and consequential year for the precious metals. If you think 2025 was wild, just wait to you see how 2026 plays out.