A Big Month for Silver

Silver Rally and Breakout in Early June

We focused on silver last week, and the rally that has persisted since leads us to focus on silver again this week too. While the short-term price action has been fun to watch, it's the longer term that's more important, and that's what we need to keep an eye on.

For now, though, the silver price is off to a great start in the month of June. The rally and breakout above $36 began on the first trading day of the month, June 2, and it has continued into June 9. As I type, the price of silver is beginning to approach $37 in the U.S. and $50 in Canada.

HFT Algos and Moving Averages Impacting Silver Futures

The daily chart looks great too. After the bullish cross of the 20-day moving average, up through the 50-day last Monday, it appears that the HFT algos are buying silver futures and driving prices higher.

Long-Term Charts Critical for Bullish Momentum

But if we're going to get the silver price back into the $40s and make a run at the old all-time highs, then we need to focus on the longer-term charts: the monthly and the quarterly. These long-term charts feed the bullish momentum needed to drive markets higher. As such, the next three weeks for silver—and the painting of the monthly AND quarterly charts—will be critical in determining the price trend into the second half of the year.

Let's start with a weekly chart of spot silver, where the close at $35.98 last Friday, June 6, marked the highest weekly close since Friday, September 16, 2011. That's over fourteen years ago, and frankly I'm uncertain of whether that makes me happy or sad. It has been a long fourteen years.

Monthly and Quarterly Silver Price Projections

But now let's check that all-important monthly chart. If we could simply close right here at $36.50, we'd have a very important breakout with the highest monthly close since August of 2011. However, there are still three weeks to go in the month and quarter, and this chart might look very different by June 30. As such, keep your fingers crossed and hope to just go sideways. Any higher than the June 9 price of $36.50 would be gravy.

And now check the even-more-important quarterly chart. Again, Q2 ends on June 30, and this chart will be updated. For now, the highest ever quarterly close for the silver price was seen on June 30, 2011, at $37.63. Can this be bested in three weeks? Maybe. If it happens, a late summer move to the old all-time highs becomes a likelihood. However, if I see this and you see this, then you can be certain that The Big Shorts in COMEX silver see it, too, so don't take anything for granted at this point.

Silver Miners ETF and Market Range Targets

It's also a big month for the silver mining shares. If we use the ETF with the symbol "SILJ" as a proxy for the sector, you can see that the month has begun quite well with the weekly chart making a push toward $15.50 and the top of what has been a four-year price range.

But, again, it's the monthly chart that tells the tale. A monthly close north of $15.50 and it looks like it will want to extend toward $19-20 and beyond. However, that monthly close is still a long way away and anything can happen between now and June 30.

So buckle up and watch closely. How the silver price trades over the next three weeks will likely set the tone for how it trades over the remainder of 2025. Let's hope for some big green candles when those monthly and quarterly charts finally get painted.

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